12:55 PM CDT | July 3, 2017
Yesterday evening, Strong to Severe Storms impacted the Red River Valley of North Texas and Oklahoma. A Damaging Wind Gust was reported late yesterday evening in Bonham, but the majority of this activity stayed in Oklahoma. A similar situation is expected today but farther west. This means that once again storm chances will be low across North Texas, and tonight’s storm chances will depend on what happens to our northwest. What we are seeing is the same situation unfold day after day. A weak disturbance triggers thunderstorms in the Rockies and High Plains. This activity forms into a MCS (meso-convective system) and impacts areas to the east and southeast. FYI, an “MCS” is just the meteorological term for storm cluster. In the process, this activity generates an area of low pressure referred to as a MCV (meso-convective vortex). These mid-level features will continue and often trigger additional storms the next day. Like dominoes, we continue to watch which ones fall and do our best to predict what effect they will have on Texas.
For the Fourth of July, several weather models suggest that tonight’s activity may leave one or more outflow boundaries in North Texas. If this occurs, we could see storm chances increase across parts of the area tomorrow. Any storms that develop tomorrow could become Strong to Severe. I wish I could say more, but hopefully this helps explain the “all-or-nothing” weather we have been experiencing the last few days.