Weather Discussion #0240

9:55 PM CDT | July 2, 2017

It will be a quiet day across most of Texas, but there is one feature of interest that could spark a few storms. This feature is a MCV (meso-convective vortex) that is moving into far Western Oklahoma. This MCV shows up well on satellite and will likely trigger some Strong to Severe Storms this afternoon. How far south this activity develops is in question. Usually, meteorologists and forecasters can get an idea of an MCV’s strength by looking at the wind profiler of a radar site to its south. A radar’s VAD Wind Profile shows the wind speed and direction above a radar site. If it shows increasing wind speed as the MCV approaches, it is a sign that the MCV is fairly strong and can support organized storms, such as Supercells. Unfortunately, the radar site that would be used right now in Frederick, OK (far SW OK) is down right now.

Looking at the data that we do have available right now, the best storm chances (30%) in Northwest/North Texas will be across the Red River Counties. A 20% chance of storms will exist as far south as the I-20 corridor. This morning’s hi-res NAM model agrees with this overall scenario. While the coverage of storms is uncertain and could remain isolated, any storms that develop could become Strong to Severe with Half Dollar-size and Damaging Winds. Just keep an eye on the weather, especially if you have any outdoor plans this afternoon or evening.