10:50 AM CDT | August 6, 2017
Showers and storms along the Red River Valley of Northeast Texas will gradually weaken and fall apart over the next few hours. The outflow boundary produced by this cluster of storms is located from north of Sulphur Springs to near Gainesville. This boundary separates rain-cooled air (outflow) from the warm, unstable air to the south. It will stall later today to the north of Dallas-Fort Worth. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid-90*F’s to around 100*F south of this boundary, but temperatures will be in the 80*F’s to low-90*F’s north of the boundary. This will be the focus for storm development by mid to late afternoon.
The environment is characterized by high moisture, moderate instability, and 15-25kts of shear. This suggests thunderstorms capable of Very Heavy Rain, Strong to Damaging Winds, and pocket change-size Hail. Widespread Severe Weather is not anticipated at this time, but a few Severe Storms are expected in North Texas. The main window will be from 4:00 PM to 10:00 PM. Based on the expected environment, I would say Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH will be the main severe hazard. If you have any loose items outside, it would be a good idea to secure them. Again, many will not see Severe Weather, but those that do could see Damaging Winds and possibly some Hail. This is what the HRRR weather model is suggesting by 7:00 PM. While the radar will not look exactly like this, it seems to have the general idea of what is expected early this evening.