1:00 PM CDT | August 4, 2017
Temperatures have moderated across much of Texas, but the warm-up will not be long-lived. A cold front will push southward late Sunday, bringing a good chance for showers and storms to much of the state. Where this boundary stalls will determine the greatest coverage and amounts. Regarding the severe threat, a few storms could produce severe wind gusts of 60 mph and some hail. The severe threat is mainly for Sunday, and it will NOT be anything widespread or significant. Heavy Rain and localized Flooding will be the main concerns late this weekend through early next week.
We are still keeping an eye on the tropics. Invest 90L in the Caribbean will move into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico early to mid next week. It has a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Conditions will be more favorable for development in the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The majority of weather models suggest a westerly track into Mexico, but confidence in any scenario will be low until a well-defined circulation forms. As mentioned yesterday, if its circulation were to develop on the northern side of the wave, it could take a more northerly track. To the east, there is Invest 99L which has a 80% chance for development. United States impacts, if any, would be at least a week or so away with 99L. Folks near the Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast should monitor their local forecasts and later statements from the National Hurricane Center.