9:10 AM CDT | August 12, 2017
This morning, showers and storms are ongoing across West Texas and Oklahoma. This activity is being aided by a fairly strong disturbance moving eastward into the region. By early to mid-afternoon, we should see widely scattered storms develop near the frontal boundary in North Texas. This activity will lift toward the north and east. A few Severe Storms will be possible during this time, but the greater threat will likely begin in Northwest Texas.
In Northwest Texas, near Wichita Falls, we should see Strong to Severe Storms fire by mid to late afternoon on the edge of the decaying morning activity. This activity will develop near an effective triple point and should increase in coverage and intensity through sunset as it shifts east-southeast. Conditions will be favorable for Large Hail ranging from Quarters to Golf Balls, Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH, and even a Tornado. This threat will decline by late evening with a diminished threat after midnight. Right now, it looks like this second round of storms is most likely to move into the I-35/35W corridor around or after sunset.
The SPC has a Slight Risk for areas generally near and north of I-20. Last night, they had pulled the Tornado probabilities; however, they reintroduced them with the 8:00 AM update. This aligns with what Texas Storm Watch has been discussing since yesterday morning and the latest thinking from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. Keep an eye on your local forecast, and be sure to have a way to get the latest watch and warning info into tonight. Some adjustments can be expected as the situation unfolds. Be sure to check out our Facebook page and new Google Play app!