Weather Discussion #0248

10:10 AM CDT | August 11, 2017

Today, there is a slight chance of storms across North Texas. Last night’s activity in the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma pushed an outflow boundary south of I-20. You can see the line of clouds late this morning from Northeast Texas into western North Central Texas. This will have little affect on temperatures today, but it will provide a surface boundary where a few isolated storms may fire this afternoon. Otherwise, more widespread showers and storms will develop in the Southern High Plains this evening, impacting the Texas Panhandle tonight and into Saturday morning.

Saturday’s forecast will be the most interesting over the next several days. An unusually strong disturbance for this time of year will track across the Southern Plains. Forecast upper-level winds, shear, and instability will support a threat for Severe Weather Saturday afternoon and evening. There is even the possibility of a Supercell or two. The area at risk will be from Southwest/South Central Oklahoma to near I-20 in North Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk across this general area for Saturday. While a widespread event is not anticipated, I would not be surprised to see parts of the Marginal Risk upgraded to a Slight Risk in future outlooks.

What kind of threats could we be looking at Saturday? I believe Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail, Damaging Winds, and possibly even a brief Tornado are not out of the question, particularly along the Red River. Storm chances will be greatest along the Red River, gradually tapering off through the I-20 corridor. South of I-20, storm chances will quickly drop off. This morning’s NAM weather model shows what we could see by early Saturday evening. Remember, this is just a weather model’s prediction – the radar will not look exactly like this. It does give you an idea of what we could see unfold, though. Keep an eye on your local forecast if you live in or near the risk area. Again, a widespread event is not anticipated, but a few Strong to Severe Storms are expected.

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