Weather Discussion #0252

9:50 PM CDT | August 11, 2017

There is the potential for Severe Weather in North Texas tomorrow. As discussed this morning, we could even see a Tornado which is very rare in August. The greatest risk for a spin-up will be near and just north of the frontal boundary that is pushing through North Texas this evening. This boundary will retreat northward on Saturday, but just how far north is still in question. Model solutions vary from near I-20 to along the Red River. We will also be watching the activity in the Texas Panhandle tonight to see how this impacts tomorrow’s setup.

The next outlook will be issued at 1:00 AM, and this post will be updated when it is available. In the meantime, this is the outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center early this afternoon. For more information, you can check out this morning’s update. We will have a better idea of the situation after daybreak. The purpose of this post is not to hype tomorrow’s threat, but to raise awareness as it unusual for this type of weather in August. One of the biggest myths is that Severe Weather can only occur in the spring. People need to be aware, so they will not be caught off guard, should a warning be issued for their area on Saturday.

P.S. – A really cool tool that is available on the blog and app is the National Weather Service Products page. Find the county warning area in which you reside (via the map), and then click the associated link. You can now view all of the products issued by your local National Weather Service office. These include discussions, watches, warnings, storm reports, and more. It is another awesome way of seeing what is going in your area!

1:00 AM Update: The SPC has highlighted a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for parts of North Texas on Saturday. This now includes most of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. A Marginal Risk surrounds the Slight Risk. Interestingly enough, they did not include any Tornado probabilities in this outlook – a departure from their previous outlook and at odds with the latest thinking from the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth. Based on tonight’s data, I still believe there is a low Tornado Risk for North Texas on Saturday, especially near and just north of the frontal boundary. Regardless, we will know more in the morning. As always, you can get the latest here on the blog, Facebook, and the new app!