Weather Discussion #0260

10:40 PM CDT | August 23, 2017

Just a quick update on Tropical Depression Harvey late this evening. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has shifted west toward the end of the forecast period. That said, confidence in the forecast track Friday and this weekend is low, as suggested by the large cone of uncertainty.

First off, the evening model runs had access to data up to 7:00 PM CDT or 00z. At 10:00 PM, the National Hurricane Center relayed that the recon flight had found the circulation of Harvey to the east of its previous position. This means that it has drifted generally northward since this morning. With strong convection blowing up to the north of the circulation right now, will this trend continue? Could it cause the weather models to shift back toward the east? These are valid questions that unfortunately will not be answered until probably Thursday morning.

Otherwise, concerns for widespread flooding, dangerous storm surge, and damaging winds continue for the Texas Coast. Impacts from Harvey will be felt far away from the center, so it is important not to focus too much on the exact track. Keep an eye on your local forecast, be prepared for adjustments, and plan accordingly.