12:30 AM CDT | September 7, 2017
Texas is finally seeing a calm stretch of weather. This is much needed in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. Most who follow Texas Storm Watch know that we strongly believe in the recurring cycle theory. Basically, this theory holds that every year a unique weather pattern sets up. It takes place from early October into mid or late November. Once the cycle is set, this pattern repeats until the next fall. When I say that the pattern repeats, I mean that the same number of upper-level features are in play with each cycle. These upper-level lows, disturbances, ridges, etc. can differ in location and strength depending on the season and other factors. The recurring cycle theory serves two functions for us. The first is that it gives us an idea of when to watch for possible weather-makers. The second is it allows us to compare what the models are forecasting to what we have seen in previous cycles. If the model guidance is in agreement with the recurring cycle theory, it results in higher confidence. To put it simply, it is another helpful tool to take into account, especially when making long-range predictions.
The part of our recurring weather pattern that will arrive by late September could bring some active weather to the state. Our attention will turn toward the west as upper-level energy could push into the Southern Plains. Increased convection in the Gulf of Mexico has been noted with this part of our weather pattern as well, so we may have to keep an eye on this as well.
This article is not meant to hype, but I did want to communicate what Texas Storm Watch will be watching later this month. The recurring cycle theory is not 100% accurate, but it is right more times than it is wrong. You can get the latest from Texas Storm Watch on the blog, Facebook, and Google Play!