3:45 PM CDT | September 23, 2017
Millions of Americans wait each year for the Farmer's Almanacs to issue their winter forecasts. Their forecasting methods are not especially transparent, but at the very least, it is interesting to see what they believe could unfold. What are they saying for the winter of 2017-2018? The Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting a cold, wet winter for most of the state. Snow lovers in the Lone Star State should be happy to hear this.
The Farmer's Almanac shows a wet winter as well, but it does not necessarily show the cold that the Old Farmer's Almanac is expecting. It has mild temperatures in the west and "wild" temperature swings in the east. How do these forecasts compare with that of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center? Let's take a look.
NOAA believes much of Texas we will see a drier and warmer winter. They are known for hedging their seasonal outlooks heavily toward what is happening in the Pacific. Since La Nina is expected this winter, they are predicting a pretty text-book La Nina event that *usually* results in warmer and drier weather across the state. I stress *usually* because there are exceptional events that have brought the opposite to Texas. What none of these sources take into account is the recurring cycle theory. The recurring cycle has been a better overall indicator the last couple of winters. From early October to mid or late November, our next unique pattern will set up. This will give us an idea of where the main storm track will be located, which parts of the country will be most active, and much more. We have some exciting things to watch just around the corner!