Model Guidance Seeing Late Month Pattern Change

3:15 PM CDT | September 11, 2017

Texas Storm Watch continues to monitor the upcoming pattern change in late September. First mentioned back on the 7th, this upcoming part of our recurring weather pattern has brought wetter conditions to the Plains in past cycles as energy from the west collides with gulf moisture. The weather model guidance is now beginning to pick up on this, though they still vary from run-to-run. The takeaway is that they are detecting some bigger changes with our atmosphere during the last 8-10 days of the month. This is all part of the weather pattern that developed last fall and continues to repeat every 8 weeks or so. The next unique pattern will set up from early October into mid or late November.

The pattern may also be conducive for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced convection in the gulf was noted in past cycles, and since we are in the midst of peak hurricane season, this will be watched as well. Greater confidence, however, is with upper-level energy moving into the Plains from the west. Check back for updates as we get closer. You can get the latest from Texas Storm Watch on the blog and Facebook page.