12:00 AM CDT | September 29, 2017
Our current weather pattern is falling apart, and the new one is just beginning to take shape. The "chaos levels" in the long-range weather models are high right now, as they struggle with the upcoming changes. What happens from early October through mid to late November will give us a MUCH better idea of what to expect this winter and next year. The main storm tracks will become evident, so we will know which parts of the country are most likely to experience active weather. Meanwhile, signs of the old pattern continue. The same part of the pattern that produced Tropical Storm Emily two months ago is resulting in an area of disturbed weather near the Florida Straits. This area is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible tropical development as it lifts northward.
Another tropical wave is moving into the Caribbean. As mentioned earlier, conditions in the Gulf of Mexico could become more favorable for tropical development as we get into the month of October. This wave will need to be watched next week.