Weather Discussion #0276

12:30 PM CDT | September 15, 2017

Parts of Texas will see increasing chances for showers and storms next week as a large trough organizes to the west. Model guidance suggests that, as a disturbance rounds the base of the trough in the Southwest, the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Norma in the Eastern Pacifc will be picked up. If the remnants do not completely fall apart over the terrain of Mexico, many Texans would see good storm chances as early as Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall would even be a possibility. If the terrain and shear rip apart the remnants of Nora, then storm chances would unfortunately be on the low side.

The trough will continue over the Rockies and Desert Southwest through the remainder of next week. Right now, the favored area for showers and storms appears to be across the western part of the state, closer to the trough. Ultimately, the coverage of rain across Texas will depend on how close the trough is located. If the trough trends farther east, storm chances will go up next week. This is the same part of the weather pattern that we saw during the latter part of May. It is interesting to note that the favored area for rain then was also across northwestern and western parts of the state. The storm chances did spread eastward, however, so we will see if that is the case again. Most Texans have experienced an unusually dry September, so rain would be welcome outside areas impacted by Hurricane Harvey.

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