8:45 AM CDT | October 9, 2017
The good news: A strong cold front is on its way, bringing much colder temperatures. The bad news: As this front interacts with gulf moisture and very warm temperatures late this afternoon, isolated Severe Storms will be possible. The frontal boundary will approach the I-35 corridor between 5:00 and 7:00 PM. We should see clouds develop along the boundary this afternoon. A cap is currently in place, but convergence along the boundary should be strong enough to allow for at least isolated storm development late this afternoon. The SPC currently has a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather for areas near and just east of I-35/35E. Personally, I believe the threat extends about another row of counties to the W/SW as well. Nonetheless, if you live in or near the risk area, keep an eye on the weather if you are out later today.
This is what this morning's run of the HRRR model shows by 7:00 PM. It develops quite a few Severe Storms in Oklahoma, but farther south, it is much less aggressive. Again, the environment will be supportive of Severe Weather in North Texas, but the main question is how strong the cap will be. This run has a stronger cap, which would lessen the chance of storms and the possibility of Severe Weather. Other models show a weaker cap with a 40-50% coverage of storms, some of which could be strong to severe. The coverage of storms later today/this evening will likely fall somewhere between these solutions, but I wanted to point out that the spread has to do with the cap strength. Just know that any storm that develops and is able to become surface-based will have the potential to produce Quarter to Half Dollar-size Hail and Damaging Winds. The cold front will undercut the activity later this evening, so the main window for Severe Weather will be from about 4:00 to 9:00 PM.