8:30 PM CDT | October 19, 2017
North Texans need to keep an eye on the weather late Saturday. There is the potential for an organized event late Saturday afternoon and evening. On Friday, an upper-level trough will deepen in the Western US. Strengthening low-level winds will transport gulf moisture northward. Instability and shear will support an isolated Severe Storm Friday afternoon, but with no real focus for thunderstorm development, storm chances will be low tomorrow. The big changes arrive Saturday as the system tracks into the Plains. As the cap weakens by late Saturday afternoon, isolated thunderstorms may fire in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Any thunderstorm that develops could become severe. The better chance for thunderstorms will be closer to/along the cold front. Storms are expected to fire from north to south along the cold front as it pushes through Northwest Texas late in the day. Forecast instability and shear will support all types of Severe Weather. This activity should build southward into North Central Texas Saturday evening as the cold front continues eastward.
What kind of threats are we looking at right now? Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH, Large Hail ranging from the size of Quarters to Golf Balls, and a couple Tornadoes are certainly possible. We will have a better idea by tomorrow evening. Expect adjustments to the forecast as we get closer.