Weather Discussion #0288

11:15 PM CDT | October 20, 2017

Thoughts on Saturday's Severe Weather setup, as seen on the Facebook page at 10:22 PM:

"There has not been much change in regards to the Severe Weather threat late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Severe Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front in Northwest Texas during the late afternoon hours. This activity will build southward along the front as it pushes into western North Texas after sunset. Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH, Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail, and isolated Tornadoes will be possible. Additional activity may develop ahead of the front, if the cap weakens sufficiently.

As of now, the best storm chances for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro appear to be late Saturday evening with the squall line/cold front. Normally, the cap strength increases after dark causing storms to become elevated in nature. While they still are capable of Damaging Winds and even Hail, the Tornado Threat decreases as storms are lifted above the surface.

I do want to note that a few weather models show very little or no cap as storms move into the I-35 corridor of North Texas. As storms encounter deeper moisture near/E of the I-35 corridor, there would be the potential for meso-vortices (brief spin-ups) along the leading edge of the line in addition to Damaging Winds and Hail. We will have a better idea of the timeline and threats in the morning. I just wanted to take a few minutes to share my thoughts on tomorrow's setup."