10:00 AM CDT | November 6, 2017
We have seen a stretch of calm weather, but that is getting ready to change soon. An upper-level disturbance in the Pacific Northwest will strengthen as it tracks southeastward into the Plains by Wednesday. Lift will increase ahead of it late Tuesday, and we should see the development of rain/snow showers in the Texas Panhandle Tuesday evening. Light snow accumulations between a dusting to 1 inch are possible in a few areas, especially north of I-40. Showers will develop farther south Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Right now, the best rain chances on Wednesday appear to be from West Central Texas through Northeast Texas. Many areas should pick up at least .25" from this event with some seeing 1-2". Due to the overrunning nature, evaporative cooling could keep high temperatures in the 40*F's across much of this area.
This is a pretty fascinating weather pattern that is developing. This is the second time in the last couple of weeks that we have seen a cold airmass move into the state right before a system. As the system approaches, it lifts moisture over the shallow, cold airmass. When these parts of the weather pattern cycle again this winter and early spring, it will be interesting to see what unfolds. This is what was one of the biggest issues with the last two winters. Generally speaking, when we had the cold air, we did not have the moisture; but, when we had the moisture, we had no cold air. If you are new to this website, you may be skeptical of this recurring cycle theory I have been discussing. I was as well when I first found out about it back in 2010. As I watched and followed this theory, I was amazed at how consistent it was. Since then, I have become a firm believer in it. By utilizing this tool, Texas Storm Watch was able to warn about active periods of weather this past year WEEKS in advance. This was even the case with Hurricane Harvey. Texas Storm Watch had warned many days before that the pattern would favor tropical development in the gulf. There have been countless other times where the recurring cycle theory has proven to be an excellent forecasting tool.
Now, past seasons have typically had a cycle length between 40 and 65 days. The pattern that developed last fall cycled every 56-60 days. The start of this pattern began in early October. Based on past years' cycles, this one could complete anywhere from mid-November to early December. Remember the article on the Arctic Oscillation a few days ago? Well, the model guidance is in better agreement that it is getting ready to fall into negative territory. This could mean a more active stretch of weather as we approach Thanksgiving. When the AO goes into the negative territory, it often makes areas east of the Rockies susceptible to very cold air. It will be monitored closely.