NOAA Catching Onto Early December Changes

4:00 PM CDT | November 28, 2017

It is what we have been discussing for some time now. Changes are on the way. Other outlets - both local and national - are starting to see these changes. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has trended cooler and wetter for Texas in the long-range. Take a look at the following graphics for Days 6 through 10 (December 4-8th). They are predicting cooler-than-normal temperatures for at the least the western half of the state with above-normal precipitation across the entire state. This is a big departure from previous outlooks, including their monthly outlooks.

Next, take a look at their 8-14 day outlook effective December 6-12th. They show an even greater chance for below normal temperatures.

For months, most media outlets have been saying that we would see a dry, warm winter with only a few cold spells. This is what a "textbook" La Nina event would suggest. While I do agree that we will likely see a drier winter than normal, I think temperatures will be seasonal to perhaps slightly colder than normal. Why? My reasoning has to do with several factors, but my main two reasons are the recurring cycle theory and the Arctic Oscillation. The weather pattern that has set up since early October has the potential to produce a wide array of weather in the months ahead. One thing noted was several overrunning events. This is when moisture is lifted atop a shallow, cold airmass. Last month and earlier this month, we saw a few of these events. The results were cool, dreary, wet days. We did not really see many of these days the last two falls when our recurring weather pattern was setting up. I believe when the pattern cycles around to these periods, we will have to closely monitor for wintry precipitation, especially when the AO is negative. The Arctic Oscillation has been neutral to negative since November 16th. In short, when the AO is positive, the jet stream tends to stay to our north along with the cold air. When it is negative, blocking in the Arctic region *usually* forces a buckle in the jet stream, making areas farther south (like Texas) susceptible to cold air. This website has been discussing both factors regularly since October. If you would like more information, visit the homepage and browse through previous updates or check out the Facebook page.

We will have to see how everything starts to set up in the coming days, but the odds of us seeing cooler and wetter weather continue to look better. It is not always a "popular" stance, especially when it flys in the face of what the majority are saying, but I will always share what I am seeing and what my personal thoughts are on a weather situation. If it is correct, great. If not, I have no problem finding out what went wrong and explaining it. If you are new to this site, I want to thank you for checking out Texas Storm Watch. I hope to hear from you soon on the Facebook page!

Sincerely, Wes - owner of Texas Storm Watch