9:00 PM CDT | November 26, 2017
As you have heard on the blog and Facebook page, features we saw at the start of our weather pattern are on the way again. The system that will roll through the Southern Plains on Tuesday is from the same part of the cycle we saw in early October. There will be a lack of deeper moisture, so unfortunately, rain chances appear low and limited to northeastern parts of the state. If more moisture were available, the wind fields and shear would certainly support a severe threat. With that in mind, it is probably a GOOD thing that we are not expected to have better moisture in place. Bigger changes will take place as we get into the month of December, which is what the models are beginning to see.
We should see a trough set up over the Western US at the start of December. Based on what we saw in early to mid-October, the pattern should allow deeper gulf moisture to move into the region ahead of it. This would set the stage for stormy weather across parts of the Southern and Central US. The majority of weather models eject the trough into the Plains, but a couple do cut it off over the Southwest. Based on what we saw in the second week of October, I believe it is more likely to lift into the Plains than stay to our west. Opportunities for more "wintry" weather will increase after this part of the cycle.
For those who would like to learn more about the recurring cycle theory or who may have just heard about it, I would recommend visiting the Weather 2020 Blog. The founder of the theory, Meteorologist Gary Lezak, is based out of Kansas City. Most of his posts focus on the Kansas City metro, but the same principles of the theory apply elsewhere. Those who follow Texas Storm Watch know the value of the recurring cycle theory. It is a shame that it is not more widely known and utilized. Texas Storm Watch will continue to monitor the pattern and keep you posted on the weather in the weeks ahead.
I have attached Gary Lezak's Video "An Introduction Into This Years LRC" from November 26th below.