2:30 PM CDT | December 18, 2017
A strong disturbance will bring good rain chances to North, Central, and Eastern Texas tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase from southwest to northeast during the morning hours. Heavy Rainfall may lead to localized flooding to the east and southeast of Dallas late Tuesday. There will also be the potential for a few Severe Storms. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for Southeast Texas on Tuesday. Personally, I believe that the risk will extend farther north and west than they indicate. The severe potential may focus near the edge of the 60*F dew points as this will act as an effective warm front. This would suggest that the threat could extend as far north as a Sulphur Springs, to Terrell, to Killeen/Temple line. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but it would be a good idea to have a way to get the latest warning info, just in case a warning is issued for your area. North of the deeper moisture, small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms.
This is what one of our hi-res models showed this morning, from 6:00 AM Tuesday to midnight Tuesday night. Please keep in mind that this is just a weather model - the radar will not look exactly like this tomorrow. It does give you the general idea, though. The 48-hr rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service has been posted below. You can get the latest on the blog and Facebook page!