4:30 PM CDT | December 15, 2017
The folks at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth posted an excellent discussion. They discussed the most reasonable weather scenarios heading toward Christmas, the differences among the models, and much more. As we stated here yesterday, IF a wintry scenario were to unfold around Christmas, the more significant threat may not be snow but freezing rain and sleet. They echoed similar thoughts, at least for North Central Texas. Again, there are quite a few days between now and then. While confidence is pretty high that colder weather is on the way, confidence in precipitation is reduced. The recurring cycle theory would suggest an overrunning event is possible (moisture falling through a cold, shallow airmass), but it is too early to say, especially given the model inconsistencies at this time. Also check out yesterday's post discussing how the weather pattern in early November foreshadowed what could unfold around Christmas. We will hopefully have a much better idea in a few days. The excerpt from their discussion has been posted below, along with another graphic showing the different model scenarios. You can get the latest updates from Texas Storm Watch on the blog and Facebook page.