Weather Discussion #0300

6:45 PM CDT | December 2, 2017

It has been a warm day across Texas. Take a look at these 3:00 PM temperatures earlier. There were widespread 60*F's and 70*F's across the state with even some 80*F's recorded today. This unusually warm weather will come to an abrubt end Monday-Tuesday as a strong cold front rolls through the region. Let's take a look at how this next system fits with our recurring weather cycle.

First, at the start of our weather pattern we saw two nearly identical systems move through the Plains from October 6th to 10th. I was unsure which of these two systems Tuesday's system was representing, but it would appear that it was the second, not the first. That would place the initial cycle length around 49.5 days. The first graphic shows the October 10th system, and the second graphic shows the late Tuesday system. It is easy to see the similarities.

This brings us to the next part of our recurring cycle. The following set up three days later on the 13th of October. There were three distinct features within the trough to our north. I have labeled the features accordingly. Now, this did not produce convection in the Southern Plains in October as it was too far removed from the region.

That will not be the case this time around, as the jet stream is stronger and positioned farther south. It is evident that this is part of our recurring weather cycle. All of the model guidance show three distinct pieces of energy once again. How many days apart will this be from October 13th? This would be about 52.5 days from the above graphic. If this timing holds, it would place the mean cycle length at 51 days when taking into account the previous system. We will see convection break out near the front as it moves through late Monday into Tuesday. This will especially be the case in Northeast Texas where coverage will be pretty widespread, up to 70%. Closer to I-35, convection will be more scattered in nature (40-50%). A few Strong Storms will be possible. Much colder air will follow the passage of the front.

We will see a large trough develop over the Eastern US leading to several days of below normal temperatures east of the Rockies. This too follows right along with our cycle. The next bigger change will likely be during the second week of December. I will have more on this after this next weather-maker. As always, you can get the latest on the blog and Facebook page!