Weather Discussion #0308

7:20 PM CDT | December 11, 2017

As seen on the Facebook page:

"Some social media pages are sharing graphics showing snow around Christmas. Surprisingly, a few of these are even coming from TV Meteorologists. These models shift from run to run, especially more than a week out. Other than sharing these images, they offer no reason for why we should believe them. That is because colorful graphics get likes and shares, but an article going into detail and discussing the situation often gets passed over. People who may have a reason are doing a disservice by not explaining "why" they believe that model may be onto something.

The majority of these same pages had written off this winter for Texas, prior to last week's winter storm. They went with a text-book La Nina showing a "blowtorch" winter with warm temperatures and little precipitation. While a drier-than-normal winter is likely, it is evident that there are parts of this pattern that are conducive to cold outbreaks with the potential for wintry precipitation. Texas Storm Watch did not rush to get a winter forecast out. We watched how the pattern began to set up in October, looked at the trends of the Arctic Oscillation, La Nina, the recurring cycle theory, and other factors. We have noted numerous times how this pattern has the tendency to produce overrunning events. These events are often favorable for snow and ice during the winter months. That is why the recent winter storm was not too surprising in the sense that it was a product of the pattern that has been discussed almost daily here at Texas Storm Watch.

In short, my point is to take these graphics with a grain of salt unless they are posted from reputable sources that provide evidence to support it. Texas Storm Watch is indeed noting the trend with a few of these models around Christmas. As mentioned over the last several days, more energy will move into the Plains this weekend/early next week. This will be the first of what should be several pieces of energy through the Christmas holiday. We will need to watch the Arctic Oscillation in the coming days as it could influence the jet stream to lift farther north or dip farther south later this month. Lots of things to watch over the next couple of weeks. As always, Texas Storm Watch will keep you posted!

-Wes"