12:00 AM CST | December 21, 2017
Unfortunately, the potential for Winter Weather leading up to and on Christmas has decreased for most areas. Our system is in the Western US right now, and it will track into the Southern Plains on Friday. Better data is available for the weather models. They have trended toward a stronger and slightly slower low moving into the region, but the setup still does not support winter weather for most of Texas. This is what the latest NAM (North American Model) shows into Saturday morning. The system looks like a bowling ball rolling through the region. Just an FYI for those following the recurring cycle theory, this part of the weather pattern will cycle one more time this winter and twice this spring.
The one area that may see the right ingredients come together at the right time for some wintry precipitation will be Northwest Texas. It will be a close call late Friday and into Saturday morning. Officially, the National Weather Service has a slight chance for Snow or a Wintry Mix for places like Childress, Plainview, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, and Haskell. Otherwise, rain and a few thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into Saturday for much of the state.
The trend as of late has been to keep the coldest air just to the north of Texas through Christmas. Do not get me wrong, we will see cold temperatures, but they will not be frigid. This in part has to do with the Arctic Oscillation which is well within positive territory. When the AO is positive, it usually keep the coldest air bottled to the north. When it is negative, blocking in the Arctic region makes areas east of the Rockies susceptible to VERY cold air. It should start dropping any time, but it will not be in time for Christmas. It will be something to watch after Christmas, though.
More energy should move into the Plains from the west around December 27th or 28th. This will be the next feature of interest on our radar following this next system. You can get the latest weather updates on the blog and Facebook page.