2:15 PM CST | January 10, 2018
The much-discussed system is moving into the Plains today. The first piece of energy will soon eject into Northwest Texas late this afternoon. Despite dew points in the 30*F's, strong lift combined with unseasonably warm surface temperatures should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development in parts of the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas. This activity will be high-based, so rainfall amounts will be low. They will be capable of gusty winds to 40 or 50 mph, though, as they lift northeast. Rain chances in the Texas Panhandle this evening will switch to snow chances later tonight. Minor accumulations between a dusting and an inch will be possible by Thursday morning.
As a second piece of energy rounds the base of the first tonight, the cold air will be forced southeast. By daybreak, the cold front should be moving through Northwest Texas. The cold front should reach the I-35 corridor of North Texas late Thursday morning. As the system deepens, there should be enough moisture for some light snow/flurries on the backside of the low. Several higher resolution models indicate that a couple bands may set up in Oklahoma and North Texas Thursday afternoon and early evening. Wherever these bands set up, minor accumulations of a dusting to perhaps an inch will be possible. Take a look at what one of our better models is showing tomorrow. The loop starts at 12z (6 AM). I slowed down the loop, so you can see the bands it develops between 18z (12 PM) and 00z (6 PM). The video ends with the snowfall totals from the bands. As you can see, it shows the bulk of the light snow near/N of the Red River but does extend it into North Texas. Other model guidance is farther to the south and west, closer to what the National Weather Service is forecasting. We will have a better idea tomorrow morning.
Widespread Freezes are expected across the state Thursday night-Friday morning. A weak disturbance may approach the region early next week, but a more significant system should move into the Plains around January 21st. You can get the latest on the blog and Facebook page!