3:00 PM CST | January 2, 2018
The weather pattern we saw develop in October and November continues to cycle. The East Coast Winter Storm that will soon begin to take shape can be traced back to the mid-November part of our weather pattern. Take a look at the following graphics. The first shows the features in the mid-levels of the atmosphere late November 16th, and the second shows what the latest North American Model depicts Thursday morning, 48.5 days later. You can see a distinct piece of energy taking on a VERY negative tilt. This same disturbance is the one tracking through the Southern Plains today. This piece of energy will pivot around the base of the larger trough, taking on a negative tilt as it does so. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories stretch from Florida (I know, I know...), through the Carolinas, and into Maine. Parts of the Southeast could see a few inches of Snow AND up to a half inch of Ice. Needless to say, power outages are expected, and travel may become impossible in some areas. We continue to see a very interesting pattern bring winter weather to places that normally do not see much. If you have not seen any snow, no reason to give up yet. We have many more weeks of winter left. Now, let's take a look at the weather closer to home.
Our next system looks to arrive on Sunday. The weather models depict a surface low developing in the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma late in the day with a dryline trailing to the south/southwest. In the spring, this would trigger some Severe Thunderstorms. Eastern parts of the state will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but there is some uncertainty in regards to the quality of moisture that will be available. This Arctic snap has sent the deep moisture well into the Gulf of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula. The moisture quality will determine how good our rain chances will be. Nonetheless, we see the pattern continue to cycle. The first graphic is from the GFS (American) model, and it depicts the surface pressure and winds late Sunday. The second graphic is the surface analysis from late November 17th. Again, it fits with our pattern that has been cycling about 7 weeks apart, give or take a couple days.
The good news is that we will begin to thaw out tomorrow and more mild weather will return this weekend as moisture increases. The airmass behind the late weekend system should not be too cold, nothing like we just saw and are still experiencing. Bigger changes could be on the way in mid-January. I will be taking a closer look at this in the upcoming days. You can get the latest from Texas Storm Watch on the blog and Facebook page!