12:30 AM CST | January 21, 2018
A strong storm system will move into the Plains today and drag a dryline into the I-35 corridor by late afternoon or early evening. Ahead of this feature, sufficient gulf moisture will be in place with 60*F dew points expected as far north as Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. Instability, while not particularly great, will be sufficient for organized storms. At this time, it appears that initial storm development will take place along or perhaps just east of the I-35/35W corridor of North Central Texas by mid to late afternoon. This activity will track northeast and should quickly intensify as it moves into a more favorable environment over Northeast Texas. The biggest change that the SPC made tonight was to upgrade much of this area to a Slight Risk, while also expanding the Marginal Risk a little farther south and west. It looks very similar to our outlook posted Friday afternoon.
The primary hazards will be Damaging Winds and isolated Tornadoes with Hail a secondary concern. Conditions appear most favorable for isolated Tornadoes from about 4:00 PM to 10:00 PM. Do I expect a widespread "outbreak" on Sunday? No, but I do believe that at least a few Severe Storms are likely. Expect some minor adjustments to the forecast between now and this evening, as it begins to set up and unfold. I will be posting periodic updates on the Facebook page throughout the day.
Here is a look at Saturday evening's WRF weather model from the Storm Prediction Center. It is one of the hi-res models that meteorologists and forecasters can utilize once we are within 48 hours of a weather event. This is a loop of the 1-hr rainfall from 12 PM Sunday to 12 AM Sunday night. You can see how quickly the storms develop during the afternoon and shift off toward the northeast. Please keep in mind that the radar will NOT look exactly like this. Other models show storms developing over the Dallas area, more in line with the latest outlook. It does give you a general idea of what we expect to unfold, though.