2:30 PM CST | January 18, 2018
Our next weather-maker is on schedule to arrive this weekend. Much warmer temperatures will return to the state Saturday as southerly flow gets established ahead of it. This will bring gulf moisture back into the state, which will keep Saturday night's lows very mild for this time of year. As the system approaches by Sunday morning, it will drag a dryline eastward into the state. An elevated fire threat will exist across the western part of the state. This dryline will be the focus for thunderstorm development, so the timing of the system will impact who has a risk for Severe Weather on Sunday. This morning's GFS (American) weather model has the system nearing the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by daybreak, while the Canadian and European models are a few hours slower. Again, this will have an impact on storm chances Sunday, particularly along and just west of the I-35/35W corridor. If the system and/or dryline is delayed a few hours, storm chances will increase.
Right now, the best chance for storms (50-80%) will be near and east of a Bonham to Austin line. With strong upper-level winds, favorable shear, and some instability, I believe there will be a threat for a few Severe Thunderstorms from Eastern Texas into the Lower-Mississippi Valley on Sunday. This potential will be monitored and refined over the next few days.
As mentioned a couple days ago on the blog and Facebook page, we could be looking at more unsettled weather around January 25-27th. I will be taking a closer look at this over the weekend.