8:45 PM CST | January 12, 2018
This winter has been the most "wintry" one in several years. I wanted to compare how much snow we have seen so far this season to what we saw at this same point over the last few years. I think you will agree that winter has made a comeback in the South this season. Back in October, we knew that this pattern that continues to cycle would be favorable for overrunning events. We have already seen several this season and more are likely. In fact, wintry precipitation is in the forecast again for many Texans early next week. More on that in just a second. First, take a look at the video. It loops through the observed snowfall from January 12, 2014 to January 12, 2018. Amazing!
Recent model guidance has trended more aggressive with the system early next week. We will have to monitor the potential for Freezing Rain, Sleet, and Snow, particularly from Monday evening through Tuesday. At least some gulf moisture should be lifted over another reinforcing shot of Arctic air. The main uncertainty right now is the amount of moisture that will be available. Confidence in moisture is greatest from Central Texas through Northeast/East Texas. This is where the best chances (40-60%) currently reside during the Monday evening-Tuesday time-frame. Chances decrease to 20-30% around/northwest of Dallas-Fort Worth. I drew up the following graphic to illustrate which areas I believe are at greater risk right now. In the northern portion of the lighter shaded area, the amount of moisture is in question, which casts uncertainty; and in the southern portion, temperatures cold enough to support wintry precipitation are less certain. Again, we are a few days away, so at least some adjustments to the forecast can be expected. I would urge folks to keep a close eye on the forecast early next week. I will be posting updates on the blog and Facebook page.
Please note that conditions are favorable for fake forecasts on social media this weekend through Tuesday. Only trust weather information from credible sources. Some websites and pages simply share model graphics and present them as official forecasts. It is misleading and is only meant to get clicks, likes, and shares. If in doubt, do not share.