7:30 PM CST | January 23, 2018
The next couple of days will be mild and quiet across the state before more unsettled weather returns on Friday. A weather system will move into the Plains during this time. Fortunately, since the core of the system will pass to our north, the potential for Severe Weather should be very low, unlike what we saw on Sunday. There will be sufficient moisture and marginal instability to support some thunderstorms Friday-Saturday with the best chances being across southern and eastern parts of the state.
Another system should arrive within the first few days of February. We are approaching the part of our weather pattern that brought colder conditions to the region earlier this season. The trend will be toward cooler weather as get into the month of February. The model guidance seems to be picking up on this as well. You have heard me discuss the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at length on the blog and Facebook, but there is another oscillation that impacts our weather. This is the East Pacific Oscillation or EPO. When the EPO has tanked in the past couple months, it was helped Arctic air plunge southward. It has been in positive territory recently, and it is expected to stay that way for several more days. Look at what the recent model guidance is predicting as we get into February. This lines up well with the recurring cycle theory, which points toward a greater likelihood of colder weather next month. February has the potential to be a pretty wild month for the United States, including Texas. We will discuss more on this later this week. The takeaways from this discussion should be (1) more unsettled weather for parts of the state before the end of the week, (2) another system is expected within the first few days of February, and (3) the likelihood of colder weather should increase significantly as get into next month. Winter is not over yet.