Weather Discussion #0332

3:30 PM CST | January 4, 2018

Our next system will move into the Plains on Sunday, January 7th. It will be a fairly strong disturbance, and by Sunday afternoon, this disturbance will drag a dryline/front combination into the region. This will be the focus for thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon and early evening. Right now, the model guidance shows dew points maxing out in the low to mid-50*F's along and south of I-20. The best storm chances appear to be to the east of I-35, but this could shift a bit over the next few days, depending on the timing of the system. While moisture will probably be marginal for Severe Weather, the strength of the system and forecast shear suggest that a couple Strong to Severe Storms will be possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Here is what the GFS (American) weather model shows from 6:00 AM Sunday to midnight Sunday night. The first video is a loop of the dew points, and the second video is a loop of the 6-hour precipitation. Keep in mind that this is just a weather model, not an exact forecast.

There are some signals for another system to move into the Plains the middle of next week. Our weather pattern is getting ready to go into its third cycle. This means that the same pattern we saw in the first part of October (cycle 1) and late November (cycle 2) is getting ready to cycle around once again. It fits the pattern, but it would be a bit earlier than when the previous systems have cycled. It may arrive next Wednesday or Wednesday night as several models suggest, but I would not be surprised to see the model guidance slow the timing closer to the 47-51 day cycle we have seen thus far. It will be monitored in the upcoming days.

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