A Look At Saturday's Severe Weather Risk

2:00 PM CST | February 22, 2018

Our Winter Weather Event is just about finished. Early this afternoon, some Winter Weather Advisories remain for parts of Northwest Texas, but these will expire at 3:00 PM. More showers and storms are on the way for the state tonight and tomorrow. Small Hail is possible with the strongest cells, but the Severe Weather Risk appears very low. Warm, moist air will start to lift northward Friday afternoon. By daybreak Saturday, 60*F dew points should be near a Bonham to Comanche line, according to most of the model guidance. A strong storm system will be approaching by this time. As it encounters better moisture, we should see storms fire just west of the I-35 corridor early Saturday morning. These will be capable of Large Hail to the size of Quarters and 50-60 MPH Winds as they track east and northeast. As this activity pushes through the I-35 corridor it will become more organized with the possibility of surface-based storms. This means an increasing threat for Severe Weather around and especially east of Dallas. Large Hail to the size of Half Dollars, Damaging Winds of 60-65 MPH, and isolated Tornadoes will be possible. I drew up a graphic to illustrate my personal thoughts on Saturday's risk. I have a Marginal Risk for areas where storms will probably be less organized and likely elevated above the surface. In the Standard Risk area, I believe we will see some surface-based storms with a Tornado Risk, in addition to Hail/Wind. For far Northeast/East Texas, I highlighted an Enhanced Risk where I believe the most favorable ingredients could come together later in the day.

Some adjustments can be expected over the next 48 hours, as we see refine the depth of the moisture and instability, the timing of the system, etc. Consider the above outlook "preliminary". To avoid any confusion, I will be referring to the official SPC outlooks tomorrow and Saturday. You can see their current Day 3 Outlook for Saturday below. They believe it will be focused farther east. They too see the potential for a more enhanced risk for parts of the region with the following statement: "An upgrade to higher probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated." The purpose of this discussion is to make sure folks are aware that there is the potential for Severe Weather on Saturday, particularly near/E of the I-35 corridor. It is that time of year again, and we will be seeing more and more chances for Severe Weather in the weeks ahead. Check back here and on the Facebook page for updates!