10:30 PM CST | February 19, 2018
I wanted to cover a couple things late this evening. First off, showers and isolated storms have formed in West Central Texas over the last two hours. This activity is expected to expand in coverage over the next several hours as it lifts northeast. We will likely see a cluster organize after midnight. While the bulk of this activity is expected to remain below severe limits, a few embedded storms could produce Penny to Quarter-size Hail and Strong Winds of 40-60 MPH. Many North Texans will experience a rainy commute in the morning.
Periodic rain is expected across North Central Texas tomorrow with the next heavier round taking shape during the afternoon and evening. While the SPC currently does not have a risk of severe weather for Texas, I personally see a low-end risk for parts of North Central and Northeast Texas. I do not anticipate widespread severe by any means, but a few storms capable of Hail/Wind will certainly be possible. The Tornado Risk appears very low but non-zero.
The last point tonight is about the cold air that is getting ready to push through the state. As mentioned on the Facebook page this afternoon, the temperatures to our north were several degrees colder than what the morning model guidance had predicted. The front also pushed well into Oklahoma when it was originally forecast to remain near the Kansas border. It is what we have seen multiple times with shallow, cold air masses this season. With that in mind, I believe the potential for Freezing Rain has increased for parts of Northwest/western North Texas during the late Tuesday night-Wednesday time-frame. While the National Weather Service has a chance for Freezing Rain early Wednesday across far Northwest Texas (Vernon, Wichita Falls, and nearby towns), I believe the threat will extend farther south. Places like Bowie, Jacksboro, Graham, and even Abilene are at risk of seeing some Freezing Rain during this time-frame. I realize the forecasts show temperatures remaining a few degrees above freezing at this time, but as always, I share what I am seeing. It is important to compare what is actually happening with what the models are showing. If the models are too warm with their analysis, as they go through time, they will continue to be off. Basically, if junk goes into the models, junk will come out. The models are trying to catch up, and once they do, I believe they will become more aggressive with the freezing rain potential. We should know much more tomorrow. Check back for updates!