1:30 PM CST | February 27, 2018
Showers and storms are developing and spreading northeast across Texas and Oklahoma. The greatest rain chances today will be across Northern Texas. Severe Weather is generally not expected, but a couple Hailers cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Later tonight, additional showers and a few storms should develop in West Central Texas. Similar to this afternoon, a couple Hailers could produce up to Quarter-size Hail. This activity will progress east and northeast through Wednesday morning.
As mentioned on the Facebook page yesterday, there will be a conditional threat for Severe Weather on Wednesday. Much depends on the effects of the earlier activity and how much the atmosphere can recover and destabilize by late afternoon. It is also possible that the morning activity could leave an outflow boundary somewhere in North Central Texas. Outflow boundaries separate rain-cooled air (outflow) from the surrounding air. They are characterized by a temperature difference and a wind shift.
I wanted to go ahead and illustrate my thoughts on tomorrow's risk. Based on the latest data, I believe that the morning showers and storms could set up an effective boundary somewhere near the I-20/30 corridor. As the system moves into the region late Wednesday, additional showers and storms should develop in North Central Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Depending on the amount of destabilization, a brief Supercell or two will be possible. Several of this morning's models suggest a similar scenario. Hail and Wind would be the main concerns, but a brief Tornado cannot be ruled out. The Tornado potential, while low, would be maximized during the late afternoon and evening hours near any surface boundaries. While widespread Severe Weather is NOT anticipated, those in North Central/Northeast Texas should have a way to receive the latest watch/warning info from the National Weather Service tomorrow.
Regardless of any Severe Storms, how much rainfall could we see over the next couple of days? The latest forecast from the National Weather Service shows .75" to 1.50"+ for Northeast Texas with amounts tapering off toward the south and west. Folks in North Central Texas could see anywhere from .10" to 1.00". Localized flooding is a possibility, particularly in Northeast Texas and where Heavy Rainfall fell with the last event. Check back here and on the Facebook page for updates.