4:45 PM CST | February 4, 2018
A very cold airmass is moving into the state this afternoon. The temperature has fallen into the upper-20*F's in Amarillo late this afternoon. This is quite a few degrees colder than some weather models had predicted. This is not unusual given that models often struggle with shallow, Arctic airmasses. This does however mean that forecast temperatures tonight and tomorrow are likely too warm across the northern half of the state. I believe that a freeze is likely tonight/early Monday morning to the north of a Mineola, to Comanche, to Big Spring line. Recent hi-res model guidance, which has a better handle on this airmass, suggest that cloud cover could keep portions of North Texas in the 30*F's and 40*F's for much of tomorrow. While most are forecasting a high of 50*F or so for Dallas-Fort Worth on Monday, a high around 45*F may be more realistic given the trends. Tuesday's highs may be adjusted downward as well.
The good news is that Tuesday's Severe Potential for East Texas appears to be decreasing. Showers and a few storms are expected, but the potential for surface-based storms has decreased since yesterday. It will be monitored, though. I still anticipate another system late this next week or weekend. We will take a closer look at this in a couple of days. You can get the latest on the blog and Facebook page.