Weather Discussion #0352

12:00 AM CST | February 6, 2018

As seen on the Facebook page:

"It's amazing to see this weather pattern continue to cycle again and again. Back on January 26th, I wrote a discussion on the blog stating that the part of the pattern that we were heading into was what brought early season frosts and freezes at the end of October and colder weather in December. Tuesday's system is directly related to what we saw at the start of November and in the third week of December.

In that discussion (you can see it in the blog archives), I noted that after the February 1-2 disturbance "we will then be watching for the possibility of another disturbance a few days later." This is the one we are getting ready to see. I began to have doubts on a more significant cold snap a few days ago, as the model guidance showed Texas only getting clipped. As the Arctic air began pushing into the state on Sunday, it quickly became evident that the models were WRONG. The recurring cycle theory proved to be more accurate than the traditional model guidance.

The Arctic air was more significant than the models suggested, and we are getting ready to see another overrunning event in the Southern Plains. Freezing Rain will be possible Tuesday-Tuesday night from parts of Northwest Texas into the Ozarks. Our attention then turns to the weekend system, which has the potential to produce yet another overrunning event with the possibility of Winter Weather. Winter isn't over yet, folks!"