Weather Discussion #0360

1:00 AM CST | February 15, 2018

It is going to feel like spring today across Texas as temperatures jump into the 70*F's and 80*F's in most areas. Far Northwest Texas, around Vernon, could even reach the upper-80*F's Thursday afternoon. A cold front is expected to push into the Texas Panhandle around sunset. Gusty north winds are expected behind the front with falling temperatures. By daybreak Friday, freezing temperatures are anticipated along and north of I-40. Temperatures will be below normal for much of Texas Friday through Saturday. Fortunately, the threat for Winter Weather appears minimal as most of the guidance keeps temperatures safely above freezing when/where the moisture is expected to fall. One forecast model that meteorologists and forecasters utilize is the SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast). Looking at the latest run, you can see the predicted temperatures from Friday morning into Saturday morning. DFW is safely above freezing, and even Wichita Falls is more likely to stay above freezing with only a couple ensemble members showing a brief dip to 32*F. Trends will be closely monitored, but a chilly rain is the most likely scenario at this time. This is reflected in the latest forecasts for Northwest Texas.

Temperatures rebound on Sunday ahead of the next disturbance, and it looks like parts of Texas could see some Strong to Severe Storms early next week. As mentioned on the Facebook page, severe weather season is just around the corner. By this weekend, we should have a better idea of what to expect Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, most of the state will see some MUCH-needed rainfall over the next week. Check out the latest forecast from the National Weather Service.