Weather Discussion #0368

8:00 AM CST | February 28, 2018

At 7:00 AM, the SPC made some big adjustments. They expanded the risk areas farther west, and the Slight Risk now includes the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. I agree with this change 100%. The model guidance has shifted farther west with storm development, and they have trended more aggressive with moisture/instability. One reason for the shift westward is they have slowed the progression of the dryline.

This is one reason why the outlook I posted yesterday afternoon had the risk into the Dallas-Fort Worth metro. The denser the airmass is ahead of a dryline, the harder time it will have mixing eastward. Unless aided by an upper-level disturbance (ours will still be to the west), it will slow as it moves into a more moist environment. This is also the case with areas that have received quite a bit of rainfall as well. In North Central Texas' case, both apply today. With that in mind, I believe the dryline will remain to the west of the I-35 corridor late this afternoon and may not mix any farther east than Mineral Wells. It will retreat toward the west around sunset with the loss of daytime heating before being overtaken by a cold front to the northwest later this evening/tonight.

I am still seeing the potential for isolated Tornadoes today, in addition to Damaging Winds and Large Hail. Those in/near the risk areas need to have a way to get the latest info from the National Weather Service. A weather radio is the best way to receive the latest watch/warning information. Check back for updates.

Note, I will be posting periodic updates on the Facebook page into tonight, so be sure to check back.