4:00 PM CST | February 18, 2018
Wetter weather is just around the corner! For Monday, there will be a chance for showers and a few storms across the heart of Texas. At the surface, a dryline will set up in Northwest Texas late in the day. A capping inversion could prevent any surface-based storms from developing in that area during the late afternoon, so storm chances for that part of the state are low, around 20% or less. Farther east, better chances will exist in North Central Texas. This activity will probably be elevated, so Severe Weather is not anticipated at this time. Small Hail and Gusty Winds will be possible with the strongest cells, though. This is a look at the rain chances Monday, courtesy of the National Weather Service.
Later Monday evening and overnight, additional showers and storms should develop in Northwest/West Central Texas. This activity will lift toward the north and east into Tuesday morning. Based on the data, I believe some of this activity could produce coin-size Hail and Strong Winds, but the overall Severe Potential appears low at this time. This is a look at the rain chances Monday night.
Showers and a few storms will be ongoing across parts of North Central Texas Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will be pushing southward into the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Oklahoma early Tuesday. As the day progresses, a triple point will likely set up somewhere in Southwest/Southern Oklahoma with the cold front to the north and a dryline to the south/southwest. In the warm, humid air to the south and east of the triple point, we could see a few Severe Storms. I would not even rule out a low Tornado Threat across parts of North Central/Northeast Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Localized Flooding will be possible where showers and storms repeatedly track over the same areas.
The airmass behind the front will be shallow in nature and colder than what we just saw. I prefer the hi-res models in regards to a faster frontal passage and will side with the colder guidance. This would place the cold front near DFW Airport around or shortly after midnight Tuesday night. We will have to watch Northwest Texas as some areas could drop to freezing or below as moisture is still falling behind the front late Tuesday night/Wednesday. This afternoon, the National Weather Service included a 20-30% chance for Freezing Rain early Wednesday for places like Wichita Falls and Vernon. Expect some adjustments to the forecast over the next few days. Regardless, a busy week is in store. You can get the latest from Texas Storm Watch on the blog and Facebook page. Be sure to also subscribe to our email notifications to make sure you don't miss any important weather updates.