9:00 AM CST | March 17, 2018
There is a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for parts of North Central Texas today. This includes cities such as Stephenville, Waco, Fort Worth, Dallas, Hillsboro, and Corsicana. Surrounding the Slight Risk, a Marginal Risk exists into Northeast Texas. In the Slight Risk, Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and larger will be possible along with Damaging Winds and a couple Tornadoes. In the Marginal Risk, Large Hail to the size of Half Dollars, Damaging Winds, and possibly a brief Tornado are possible. Some slight adjustments to the risk areas are possible later today, depending on the progress of the warm front. Let's take a look at one of this morning's weather models.
This is the HRRR model, or the "High-Resolution Rapid Refresh" model. It updates hourly and goes to 21 hours. This graphic is from this morning's 7:00 AM run and depicts the surface dew points at 4:00 PM. It shows the triple point setting up toward Abilene with the warm front making it into the Dallas area. A dryline trails to the south of the surface low. Storm development will occur near and to the east of the surface low by mid to late afternoon. This activity will be developing in a very moist and moderately unstable environment. Shear will be favorable for rotating storms capable of Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and a couple Tornadoes. Activity will initially track toward the east and northeast, but as storms become surface-based, they will track more towards the right, or east-southeast.
It is important that those in/near the risk areas have a way to get the latest information from the National Weather Service this afternoon and evening. A weather radio is the best way to get the latest watch and warning information. I will post periodic updates on the Facebook page into this evening, so be sure to check back.