12:00 PM CST | March 23, 2018
It is going to be a HOT day across parts of Texas. Many areas out west will enjoy highs in the upper-80*F's to mid-90*F's. This includes places like Midland, Odessa, Lubbock, Amarillo, and Childress. This is what one of our weather models is showing by 5:00 PM. Unfortunately, very low humidity and gusty southwest winds will result in Extreme Fire Weather Conditions for the Texas Panhandle today. Critical Fire Conditions will extend into Northwest Texas and Southwest Texas.
A dryline will move into North Texas on Saturday as a cold front pushes into the area from the north. Storm development is unlikely near the dryline due to capping. The front is expected to retreat northward into the Red River Valley and Northeast Texas late Saturday night/early Sunday. A slight chance for storms will exist Saturday night, mainly north of I-20. On Sunday, the dryline will push into western North Texas. The capping inversion could become weak enough for a couple storms to form by late afternoon or early evening. Anything that does manage to develop could become Severe with Large Hail and Damaging Winds. A low Tornado Risk would exist with any Supercell. Given the isolated nature of the threat, the SPC only has a Marginal Risk issued for Sunday. If storm coverage looks greater in later model runs, parts of western North Texas could be upgraded to a Slight Risk. At this time, though, the overall risk appears marginal.
A storm system will organize to our west early next week. This will place much of the state in a favorable region for thunderstorms. At least a low risk of Severe Weather will be present through Wednesday. The risk will slowly migrate south and east each day. On Monday, the favored area for a few Severe Storms will be western North Texas. On Tuesday, the risk shifts into Central/Northeast Texas. Depending on the progression of the system and cold front, Wednesday's risk may be limited to Southeast Texas. Localized flooding is expected during this time.
On last thing to mention is the potential for Wintry Weather for parts of the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures could be supportive of light snow mixing with rain by Wednesday as the system pushes into the state. Right now, this looks most likely to occur to the west of I-27, including places like Dalhart and Hereford. It is too early to get into details, but it is certainly worth mentioning. This goes back to previous discussions. As early as March 3rd, Texas Storm Watch began mentioning bigger weather changes in late March and early April that would make the state susceptible to colder air. On March 13th, it was discussed that the first signs of these changes would be around March 21st - the Texas Panhandle saw freezes a few days ago. Then, it was mentioned that the weather around March 27th could be active as well for the region. Heavy Rainfall/Severe Weather is on the way with the potential for some Wintry Precipitation in the Texas Panhandle. This part of our cycling weather pattern will continue through early April. You can get the latest on the blog and Facebook page.
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