10:45 AM CDT | March 28, 2018
Texas is seeing some much-needed rainfall right now. Amarillo has seen around .25" over the last 24 hours. Prior to this event, Amarillo had not recorded measurable rainfall since early October. Thankfully, the area is finally seeing some moisture. The heaviest amounts have been across Northern and Central Texas over the last few days. This is a look at the 7-day rainfall amounts valid at 7:00 AM today. Amounts will increase across Eastern and Southern Texas as more showers and storms impact the area today.
There is the possibility of Severe Weather today for eastern and southern sections of the state today. The greatest potential for a few Severe Storms and perhaps a couple Tornadoes will be in Southeast Texas, particularly from the Houston area, toward Lufkin, and points east.
On Thursday, a shortwave will rotate through the Southern Plains. As it does, we may see a couple storms fire near the core of it. This would be most likely to occur in far Southern Oklahoma/North Texas Thursday afternoon. With temperatures expected to make it into the upper-60*F's and low-70*F's in North Texas, I personally believe we there is the possibility of a stronger storm or two. I realize that the SPC has no risk highlighted at this time, but I have seen these "cold core" setups produce isolated Severe Storms in the past. The cold temperatures aloft and lift near the core of the mid-level low compensate for the lack of greater surface moisture/instability. Typical model-generated severe weather parameters underestimate the risk since it differs from the typical severe weather environment. These setups are usually localized and limited to a few hour window. I will keep an eye on the trends and will update on the Facebook page later today. To reiterate, the risk tomorrow is *conditional*. Hopefully this does not materialize, and we just see a few showers as the National Weather Service is currently forecasting.