9:30 PM CST | March 8, 2018
As mentioned earlier this week, there is the potential for Severe Weather on Saturday, particularly across the Ark-La-Tex region. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for the Texarkana area and points north and east. A Marginal Risk extends further west into parts of Northeast Texas. You can see their outlook below. I personally believe that there is the potential for locally significant Severe Weather. Why do I say this? Dew points in the 60*F's are likely to make it into Southern Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low is expected to develop by this time near or north of the Red River. Surface winds will back out of the southeast near/east of this area of developing low pressure. Just above the surface, winds will be out of the south and southwest. By the time you get into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, winds will be out of the west-northwest. This clockwise turning of the winds with height favors storm rotation. Storm rotation will be further enhanced since storms will be tracking toward the west-southwest, courtesy of the mid-level winds. What does this mean?
I believe that some Severe Storms can be expected in this part of the country on Saturday, particularly from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Isolated Significant Supercells will be possible. Large Hail from the size of Quarters to Golf Balls, Damaging Winds of 60-70 MPH, and a few Tornadoes will be possible in my opinion. I have seen these types of setups in previous years, and this is what appears to be shaping up. I do not believe that the risk will necessarily be widespread, but I am concerned about a few locally intense storms. To illustrate my thoughts on Saturday's risk, I drew up the following graphic. While not shown, the threat extends into East Central Oklahoma, Central Arkansas, North Central Louisiana, and even into Mississippi - similar to the SPC's outlook. As the timing and track of the system gets refined over the next 48 hours, some adjustments can be expected. The threat could increase or decrease for Northeast Texans between now and Saturday. Just keep an eye on your local forecast.
As always, you can get the latest here and on the Facebook page.