Weather Discussion #0376

1:30 PM CST | March 15, 2018

Spring is here! Temperatures are heading into the 70*F's and 80*F's this afternoon across the state. The next few days will feature nice temperatures for most Texans. More active weather returns soon for parts of the state. A system will track through the Central Plains on Friday and drag a dryline into East Central Texas by sunset. The boundary will stall and gradually lift northwestward overnight. Its northward progress may be impacted by a weak cool front that will push into North Texas by Saturday morning. This will set up a triple point somewhere in North Central Texas by Saturday afternoon. Wherever this sets up, whether it be near Fort Worth or farther south, conditions will be favorable for isolated Severe Storms near/S of the warm front and ahead of the dryline. Storm coverage may be low, but anything that develops and is able to become surface-based would have the potential to produce Large Hail up to the size of Golf Balls and Damaging Winds. An isolated Tornado is certainly not out of the question, particularly near and east of the surface low. Again, I do not see widespread Severe Weather at this time, but a couple Supercells are certainly a possibility. This is what one of our better hi-res models is currently showing by 4:00 PM Saturday. Please keep in mind that this is just one model, but it does give you a general idea of what we could see set up somewhere in the area. We will know more by tomorrow evening.

A few Severe Storms are possible on Sunday across parts of North, Central, and Eastern Texas. The details are still trying to be refined, but the setup deserves close monitoring as we get closer. All I can say is that it is that time of year again. If you have followed this page for some time, you have probably heard me mention that drylines mix eastward more quickly in less dense (drier) air. The "average" location of spring drylines are influenced by rainfall. When the western part of the state sees decent rain, the dryline tends to remain farther west. When western parts of the state have seen little rainfall, the dryline tends to push farther east. This has an impact on which parts of the state are subject to more Severe Weather. When looking at the observed rainfall since January 1st, it is easy to see where this year is trending. I believe the dryline will often push into heart of the state, rather than hanging back to the west as we saw last spring. This means the eastern half of the state will likely be subject to more dryline events. I have noticed Oklahoma City meteorologists begin discussing this in the last week. I would anticipate others here in Texas to begin mentioning the same.

As always, you can get the latest from Texas Storm Watch on the blog and Facebook page!