2:00 PM CDT | April 3, 2018
Right now, a cold front is pushing through North Texas. Storms are ongoing well ahead of it in North Central Texas from Killeen to south of Tyler with additional activity developing along the front near DFW Airport. The primary hazards are Large Hail from the size of Quarters to Golf Balls and Damaging Winds. A brief Tornado cannot be ruled out, but the risk is very low. Once the cold front passes through your area, the severe risk will diminish.
Colder and drier air will filter into the state behind the front. Temperatures tonight and early Wednesday morning will dip into the 20*F's and 30*F's across the northwest portion of the state (see graphic). A cool day is expected for most areas tomorrow before temperatures rebound on Thursday.
Our next weather-maker will begin to impact the region on Friday. There will be the potential for Severe Weather across parts of the state Friday afternoon and evening. The favored area for a few Severe Storms appears to be North/Northeast Texas, but this will ultimately depend on the timing of the cold front. Friday's cold front will be stronger than the one moving through the region today. This system will have more moisture available, and some Winter Weather is likely across parts of the South Central Plains and Ozarks Friday-Saturday. We will have to watch temperature trends as we get closer. This is the system I have been anticipating for weeks now, based on our cycling weather pattern. As discussed on the Facebook yesterday, the Easter cold front was also part of our cycling weather pattern, but this is the main system I have been waiting for the models to begin picking up. The National Weather Service in Norman has added a Wintry Mix as far south as Pauls Valley (South Central OK) by Friday night. For places like Vernon and Wichita Falls, the National Weather Service has a chance for showers with lows in the mid-30*F's Friday night. I have been saying since March 3rd that the northern half of the state is not out of the clear for frosts and freezes through early April, and that the potential for late season Winter Weather could extend as far south as Northwest Texas. It is too early to say if showers could briefly switch to a Wintry Mix for parts of the state Friday night/early Saturday, but it will be monitored. Right now, confidence is high that (1) we will see another cold snap late Friday-Saturday and that (2) we will see increasing rain chances. There is moderate confidence in seeing a few Severe Storms by Friday afternoon and evening. The Friday-Saturday time-frame is starting to be within the scope of our mid-range, higher resolution models. These handle the finer details better than the long-range models. With that in mind, we should begin to get a clearer picture in the next couple of days of what this system will bring to the state Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should moderate on Sunday as another system approaches from the west. Be sure to Like Texas Storm Watch on Facebook to get the latest weather updates!