6:00 PM CDT | April 5, 2018
The state of Texas is going to get hit with an assortment of weather Friday and Saturday. The weather models actually seem to be handling this airmass fairly well so far, but the key will be how they handle it tomorrow. This airmass will accelerate toward the south tomorrow.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop to our north tonight and early Friday, near a retreating frontal boundary in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Isolated storms will be possible north of I-20, but most activity will be north of the Red River. As another disturbance approaches by Friday afternoon, this activity to our north will strengthen and a squall line or MCS is likely. The primary hazards will be Damaging Winds to 70 MPH and Large Hail. A few Tornadoes will be possible as well, but the linear nature of the activity would suggest Damaging Winds as the greatest concern. While the line will progress south and east, it is expected to build farther west into Northeast Texas. An Enhanced Risk of Severe Storms is highlighted by the SPC for this region.
Farther west across North Central Texas, a cap will be present for much of the day. It *should* weaken enough to allow for widely scattered storms between 4:00 and 6:00 PM as the cold front pushes into North Texas. This activity will track toward the southeast. The environment will be supportive of Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and larger and Damaging Winds. A Tornado is possible, but it depends on how quickly this activity is undercut by the cold front. The magnitude of the risk for North Central Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, will depend on (1) the cap strength ahead of the dryline/cold front and (2) how quickly activity is undercut by the advancing cold front.
Much colder air will push into the state Friday night and Saturday morning. This is a look at the forecast lows Friday night/early Saturday. Temperatures will drop into the 20*F's and 30*F's across the northwest half of the state. A light Wintry Mix is forecast for parts of the Texas Panhandle Friday night. Freezing Drizzle will also be possible in the Red River Valley of North Texas by late Friday night and early Saturday morning. It is incredible that we are talking about this in early April. I may not have enough time to post another update on the blog tomorrow, but I will post periodic updates on the Facebook during this time. Be sure to check back for updates!