8:00 PM CDT | April 30, 2018
Severe Storms have impacted parts of West Texas today. This is the second round of Severe Storms to impact that part of the state since yesterday afternoon. On Sunday, storms produced Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail and Strong/Damaging Winds as they tracked out of New Mexico and into the state. Today, there have been a few reports of Large Hail up to the size of Ping Pong Balls in West/Northwest Texas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 11:00 PM, but based on the trends, I would not be surprised to see it canceled before then.
Tuesday's risk will be mainly across Kansas where an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather exists. A stray Severe Storm cannot be ruled out in the far eastern Texas Panhandle, but Severe Storms are more likely to develop just north and northeast of the state. Wednesday is more concerning. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Northwest Texas with a Slight Risk into North/West Central Texas. At least widely scattered Supercells are likely to develop near the dryline late in the day. As we get into the mid and late evening hours, upscale growth into one or more clusters will be possible. Well ahead of the dryline, the models suggest that capping could prevent development in North Central Texas during the afternoon. The environment would be supportive of Severe Storms, but at least a weak cap and the lack of a surface boundary for storm initiation casts uncertainty. The better chance of seeing a few Strong to Severe Storms closer to Dallas-Fort Worth will be Wednesday night, especially if activity to the west can organize into clusters.
Wednesday's activity will have an impact on Thursday's weather. The overall setup does suggest at least a low-end Severe Risk for North Central Texas on Thursday, but again, this is subject to change depending on what happens on Wednesday. What is clear is that it is almost May and the weather reflects it. Expect adjustments to the forecast over the next few days as we get a better handle on each day's setup. Be sure to Like us on Facebook and check back for updates!