Active Weather Pattern Returns Late May

10:30 AM CDT | May 6, 2018

The weather across the state will be warm and dry over the next several days. Our next chance for rain looks to be this weekend. The weather models show a cool front pushing into the state either Saturday or Sunday. Based on our weather pattern that continues to cycle every 47-48 days, give or take a couple days, this front that the models are advertising *should* occur. A system will move into the Rockies late this week. The models differ right now - some show it strengthening while others show it weakening. Based on the previous cycles going back to early November, it will probably weaken. Even if that is the case, it will still be enough to help push the front into the state. We should see increasing rain chances as the front interacts with moisture from the gulf.

A weather pattern more favorable for storms, some severe, will return to the region by late May. We should start to see the first signs of it around May 24th, in my opinion. This is beyond the scope of the majority of our model guidance, but this is what the recurring weather cycle theory would suggest. I will be keeping a close eye on it as we get closer. Again, this is not to say that we will be dry until then. We will see a few opportunities between now and then, like later next weekend. The overall pattern, though, will favor drier than normal weather for the region. The graphic below shows the forecast rainfall amounts over the next 5 days.

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