2:00 PM CDT | May 31, 2018
Today is the last day of May. It has been a HOT May across Texas this year. The northwest third of the state has been running a good 6-10*F above normal. The southeast two thirds has been 2-5*F above normal. The good news is that a cool front will push into the state on Saturday. The Texas Panhandle will be in the 100*F's tomorrow with the hottest temperatures to the east and southeast of Amarillo. High temperatures will range from 106*F to 110*F in this area. Behind the front, they can expect highs 10-15*F cooler Saturday afternoon. Take a look at what one of our hi-res models is showing on Saturday. The first loop is of the temperatures from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM. The second loop is of the simulated radar during that same period.
The warmest temperatures will pool near the front, which means that Western and Northern Texas will see the hottest temperatures based on this timing. It is important to note that the timing of the front may be adjusted earlier or later as we get closer. Strong surface heating and lift near the frontal boundary *should* be enough for isolated storms during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Strong/Damaging Winds would be possible with any storm that manages to develop. The window for storm development will be limited to a few hours, so where the boundary resides by late afternoon will determine who has the best chance of storms (albeit only 20-30%). Cooler temperatures are expected for most of the state on Sunday.
There will be the potential for additional storms early next week as a disturbance tracks to our north. Best rain chances appear to be across northern and northeast sections of the state, closer to the disturbance. As far as tropical activity, the Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are quiet right now and may continue to be quiet for a while. Conditions could become more favorable for tropical activity as we get into mid-June. As always you can get the latest here and on the Facebook page. You can also subscribe to our free email notifications to be notified when there is a new update on the blog!