9:00 AM CDT | May 25, 2018
The model guidance still suggests a landfall somewhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle is most likely for 90L. The disturbance is close to developing. As discussed on Monday, this part of our cycling weather pattern can be traced all the way to early October. The same part of our weather pattern that produced Nate last fall is what has cycled around again. Hurricane Nate developed in the Southwest Caribbean on October 4th and made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River late October 7th.
As you know our weather pattern has been cycling every 47-48 days, give or take a couple days. Let's start with the landfall on October 7th. Forty-seven days out would be November 23rd, then January 9th, February 25th, April 13th, and now May 30th as we close out the fifth cycle and begin the sixth. Most of the model guidance shows a landfall somewhere along the Northern Gulf Coast May 27-28th, which aligns well with the cycling weather pattern.
The recurring cycle theory does not guarantee a certain outcome every time. It does allow us to have an idea of when certain features will come back into play. Previous cycles suggested that there would be a tendency for lower pressures in the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in late May. This was obviously most pronounced with the first cycle in early October when we had Nate in the gulf. This is why Texas Storm Watch began mentioning this potential specifically for the Gulf of Mexico last Wednesday and discussed it in greater detail on Monday. The model guidance continues to suggest a landfall somewhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle is most likely. I do not disagree, but I would still recommend those outside this region, including Texas, to keep tabs on it.